How Did Vandy Pull Off the Upset of the Year?

Vanderbilt stunned the college football world last weekend when they upset the #1 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide, just one week after their thrilling home win over the Georgia Bulldogs. How did the Commodores do it, and could anyone have seen this coming?

First, Vandy moved the ball on every drive - zero hidden turnovers on offense, and they only punted one time. We've introduced hidden turnovers in one of our first posts, and the importance of this unofficial measure cannot be understated.

Second, they kept Bama off the field. Their first 2 drives of the game consumed over 15 minutes. When the final whistle blew Vandy had held the ball for over 42 minutes. In doing so, Vanderbilt limited the number of possessions in the game to 19.

So the 'Dores capitalized on all but one of their possessions, while their defense was able to force 2 turnovers (resulting in 14 points), and two 3&outs that were followed by Vandy scores. In total, the Commodores had 24 points off Alabama turnovers!

Give credit to Vandy. Prior to last week they had one of the most productive offenses in the SEC, ranking 6th in the conference at 3.2 points per drive. After last week's performance they jumped to 4th place in this crucial measure. Bama was favored by over 3 scores in this game, and the Over/Under was 53.5. This implies that the odds-makers thought Bama would win with a score around 38-16, which would imply less than 1.5 points per drive for Vandy - a huge departure from their season average. Oh yeah... Vandy's highest points per drive performance of the season against an FBS opponent came against the Crimson Tide on Saturday.